I would make the argument that the music business—and by that, the author means "major label" music business—is already being killed, and one can see its utter demise just by extrapolating the current trend.
I suggest three reasons why this is true:
1. There is little or no profit in the major label business anymore—certainly not for the artist, and rarely for the label. I believe this is because of the fragmentation of entertainment, failure to embrace new technology, and many other trends. Regardless, this has led to consolidation over a 20 year period, where six major labels became just three (today Sony, Warner, and Universal). And revenue has declined from $15 billion annually at its peak in 1999 to about $6.8 billion today.
2. The music industry failed to see the value of the Internet in music distribution. Once piracy became rampant, the music industry essentially signed control of distribution over to its one credible savior, Apple (and now, to an extent, streaming services like Spotify). The net result is that the industry has little control over the price of its product, and little connection to its customer. iTunes dominates.
3. Home recording technology is getting better and cheaper, and distribution is easier than ever (recall that Justin Bieber was discovered on YouTube). While this may not have made a meaningful impact yet, it is easy to imagine that it will over the next 10 years. I can already point to several artists, like Brad Sucks (one of my favorites), who are taking advantage of this.
In short, I don't think we need to change the status quo much at all. The major labels are on their way out.
It's funny you bring up Bieber. He and Lady Gaga are both talented - both are OK looking (Lady Gaga goes out of her way to avoid clear shots, she's not that stunning), good singers, good dancers, and reasonably good song writers. They are good, but I wouldn't call them great. You couldn't seriously compare them to Madonna and Michael Jackson.
What they are absolute geniuses at is PR, which should be the label's job. Michael Jackson got a similar amount of media attention to Lady Gaga, but it tended to be negative.
The musicians are already starting to do the label's core business (promotions) for them.
I'd say Lady Gaga is clearly at a much higher level than Madonna musically. Hear her sing with Tony Bennett. Madonna is good at marketing, but did she write her own music or plays the piano? Behind all the provocation, Gaga is a talented musician.
Indeed, and Madonna's greatest genius was in marketing. Her singing and dancing were both technically mediocre, but she made listening to Madonna music something cool and fun in young people's minds.
I suggest three reasons why this is true:
1. There is little or no profit in the major label business anymore—certainly not for the artist, and rarely for the label. I believe this is because of the fragmentation of entertainment, failure to embrace new technology, and many other trends. Regardless, this has led to consolidation over a 20 year period, where six major labels became just three (today Sony, Warner, and Universal). And revenue has declined from $15 billion annually at its peak in 1999 to about $6.8 billion today.
2. The music industry failed to see the value of the Internet in music distribution. Once piracy became rampant, the music industry essentially signed control of distribution over to its one credible savior, Apple (and now, to an extent, streaming services like Spotify). The net result is that the industry has little control over the price of its product, and little connection to its customer. iTunes dominates.
3. Home recording technology is getting better and cheaper, and distribution is easier than ever (recall that Justin Bieber was discovered on YouTube). While this may not have made a meaningful impact yet, it is easy to imagine that it will over the next 10 years. I can already point to several artists, like Brad Sucks (one of my favorites), who are taking advantage of this.
In short, I don't think we need to change the status quo much at all. The major labels are on their way out.